Focus on what is constant - not what's changing

Humans aren’t particularly good at predicting the future. On top of that, we have a particular weak spot for visualizing and conceptualizing compounding effects, which is how money and technology work.

This causes us a lot of anxiety, especially in an age where we’re in the thick of exponential change and things are changing faster and faster than we can really comprehend.

Most of the content out there is trying to predict a small portion of the future and convince you of how they reached that conclusion, and urgently telling you that you need to pay attention to XYZ in order to be prepared for the future.

What a stressful, distracted way to live.

But what’s the alternative? Bury your head in the sand?

No.

Focus on what’s durable and unchanging rather than what’s fleeting and unpredictable

Instead of trying to keep up with what’s changing, shift your attention to what doesn’t change.

This is the concept that Morgan Housel, a two-time winner of the Best in Business Award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers, winner of the New York Times Sidney Award, and a two-time finalist for the Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business and Financial Journalism, suggests.

When you focus on what won’t change, it forces a shift in perspective to understand the underlying forces of why things happen.

It requires that you familiarize yourself with history, instead of being ignorant of it.

“I try to keep two things in mind in a world that’s this vulnerable to chance and accident… predicting what the world will look like in fifty years from now is impossible. But predicting that people will still respond to greed, fear, opportunity, exploitation, risk, uncertainty, tribal affiliations, and social persuasion in the same way is a bet I’d take.” - Morgan Housel

How to focus on things that are durable

1. Base your decisions on people’s behavior, not events. History continues to remind us that the world is unpredictable.

2. Develop a first principles understanding of why things happen. Are you developing permanent or expiring information?

3. Develop strong pattern recognition. You can do this by understanding history and relationships across seemingly unrelated events.

4. Be highly selective in what you consume. You only have limited time and attention, so focus on a small number of things and ignore a very large number of things.

Life is unpredictable, but human behavior isn’t.

Focusing on what stays the same reorients your mind for long-term thinking and focused calm.

It puts you in the right state of mind to build long-term and durable understanding.

Paraphrasing Donald Knuth, instead of staying on top of things, get to the bottom of things.

Thanks for reading!

If you’re like me and actively trying to change your X algorithm to show less fear-based content and more thoughtful content, follow me at @allymexicotte.

For those of you who are so over X, I’m also posting regularly on Mastodon at @allymexicotte.

Since both platforms are optimized for shorter-form content, I’ve started test-driving my ideas there and would love to hear your input.